How big should
a unit be?

A unit is a promise to yourself

A unit is the amount you bet on a normal play. Not the fun play, not the lock, the normal one. Once you set it, every bet is that number until you decide otherwise on purpose. That's the whole idea. The bettors who last aren't the ones who pick better, they're the ones who never let one night decide the size of the next one.

Start with the roll, not the bet

Take the money you have set aside for betting. Not your checking account, not rent, the money you could lose over a season and be annoyed, not hurt. That's your bankroll. A unit is a slice of it.

One percent is careful. Two percent is standard. Three percent is the most we'd ever suggest, and only if you already know what a ten-loss streak feels like. On a $500 roll, two percent is $10 a play. On $2,000 it's $40. Run yours through the unit sizer and it does the math for you.

Why so small

Because losing streaks are normal. Not a sign you're bad, not a sign the system broke. Normal. A 55% bettor loses five in a row about once every two weeks and ten in a row a couple of times a year. At two percent a unit, ten losses is a fifth of the roll and you're still in business. At ten percent it's the whole thing and you're texting people about a loan.

Small units aren't about being timid. They're about making sure variance can't kill you before the edge shows up.

Flat, every time

Every play we post is one unit. Three-bolt play, one-bolt play, doesn't matter. The bolts tell you how many signals agreed, not how much to bet. The moment you start betting two units on the plays you "really like," you've turned a system into a feeling. Feelings don't have a record.

When to change it

Once a month. Look at the roll on the first, set the unit, leave it alone. If the roll grew, the unit grows a little. If it shrank, the unit shrinks. Never after a win, never after a loss, never at 11 PM. The calendar decides, not the scoreboard.

The short version

Set aside a roll. Bet two percent of it on every play, flat. Re-size on the first of the month. That's it. It's boring, and boring is what winning looks like most nights.